The Denver Nuggets are facing an uncomfortable question after a 4-3 start to the 2026-27 season: who are they if Nikola Jokic isn’t consistently playing at an MVP level? So far, Denver has looked like a mediocre team still searching for its first statement win over top-quality competition.
For most of the past decade, the Nuggets’ championship hopes have depended on assembling enough talent around Jokic. That search has produced memorable moments, including Jamal Murray’s evolution into a bona fide sidekick, the franchise-changing trade for Aaron Gordon in 2021, and the emergence of Christian Braun and Bruce Brown during the 2023 title run. Since that championship, the capped-out Nuggets have steadily lost talent and have not reached the conference finals in the past three seasons.
The focus on Denver’s supporting cast has grown out of Jokic’s reliability. The Serbian center has been the NBA’s most consistent star of the 2020s. He has finished first or second in Most Valuable Player voting for six straight seasons, ranked first in Player Efficiency Rating for six straight seasons, and carried Denver to eight straight playoff berths and four straight 50-win campaigns.
Jokic entered this season looking poised to extend that run. He is still just 31 years old and coming off a season in which he averaged a triple-double and captained the NBA’s most efficient offense. In September, he claimed the top spot in the league’s annual top-100 player projection, and he told reporters he plans to sign a contract extension with the Nuggets next summer. When he threaded a behind-the-back, cross-court pass to Cameron Johnson for a corner 3-pointer during an October preseason game, it was easy to believe in Denver again and forget about April’s demoralizing first-round exit against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
There was no obvious reason to expect Jokic’s level of play to drop, but he has struggled at times to meet his own standard over the first two weeks of the regular season. If that trend continues, Denver faces a serious crisis.
Why this isn’t the same Joker
Small sample size caveats apply, but Jokic has started slowly. Through seven games, he is shooting 50.4% from the field, his worst mark since 2017-18, and a career-low 21.9% from 3-point range. His 26.1 Player Efficiency Rating is his lowest since his rookie season in 2015-16, and his 23.4 points per game is his lowest output since 2019-20.
The underlying numbers raise more concern. Jokic’s average shot distance is 12 feet, tied for the longest of his career, because just 16% of his shots have come from the basket area, a career low. Meanwhile, 25% of his shots have come from beyond the arc, nearly a career high. His free throw and offensive rebound rates have also fallen sharply from last season and are trending toward career lows.
Jokic remains the only player in the league averaging 23 points, nine rebounds and nine assists, but his efficiency and forcefulness are lagging behind his box score production. He ranks sixth in the league in PER and 15th in win shares. Last season, he ranked first and second, respectively, in those same metrics.
A dominant Jokic led Denver to a blowout win over the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday, scoring 32 points with 10 rebounds and 11 assists. Still, he has not sustained that level of impact on winning or his command of the paint from night to night. As a result, the Nuggets’ offense has not looked like the juggernaut fans have come to expect.
That win offered hope that Jokic is simply pacing himself for a long season and that his poor outside shooting is a short-term slump. Nuggets coach David Adelman expressed confidence this week that Jokic’s play will improve with time.
“Some of the shots we’re so accustomed to seeing that [Jokic] never misses, whether it’s a jump hook or a 15-footer, all those kinds of things, they’re coming,” Adelman said after Monday’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.
“This is a six-game sample size of one of the most efficient offensive basketball players that’s ever lived. I’ll die on that sword.”
Why these aren’t the same Nuggets
Denver’s top-heavy roster was not built to compensate for any drop-off from Jokic. The Nuggets are 4-3 and have gone 0-3 against teams with winning records. They have also heard boos from their home crowd at Ball Arena. After an overtime win over the New Orleans Pelicans in the home opener, Jokic responded to the fans who booed. “I think those fans who booed us … they’re not welcome anymore,” he said.
Jokic’s struggles have exposed the flaws around him. Gordon is not moving well after missing more than half of last season due to injury, Johnson continues to underperform, and a new-look second unit headlined by 37-year-old DeMar DeRozan has been outscored on a regular basis.
With Jokic drifting away from the basket, the Nuggets ranked 26th in points in the paint before their win over the Raptors. That is a potentially serious problem because Denver also ranks 28th in 3-point attempts per game. Adelman wants improvement in both areas. He said he will make a “concerted effort” to establish Jokic in the post while encouraging his role players to “get up more 3s.”
Denver’s long-standing formula, an elite offense compensating for a so-so defense, looks shaky. Despite a strong start from Murray, the Nuggets’ offense ranks 11th entering Thursday. They have not ranked outside the top 10 since Jokic’s rookie season.
“It’s too much responsibility for [Jokic and Murray],” Adelman said Monday. “I have extreme trust in the others. They have to have trust in themselves.”
Adelman’s job requires him to keep faith in his role players, but his bench is severely untested. Rookie forward Trevon Brazile has been a pleasant surprise. However, budget-friendly backups Marvin Bagley III, Bryce Hopkins, Alpha Diallo and Cam Whitmore have combined for only a handful of playoff appearances. Offseason additions DeRozan and Tyus Jones are both several years removed from any real postseason impact.
The new faces also highlight how few key contributors remain from the 2023 championship team. Denver fired general manager Calvin Booth and coach Michael Malone less than two years after winning the title. Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Braun and seldom-used big man Zeke Nnaji are the only players left from the 2022-23 roster.
Denver tried to replace Brown, Michael Porter Jr. and Peyton Watson with cheaper alternatives, since Jokic, Murray and Gordon all hold significant contracts. Those efforts have largely failed. The Nuggets’ recent draft history has also produced more misses than hits. Rather than rebuilding Jokic’s supporting cast with young talent, Denver has relied on a new batch of free agent fliers every summer. Russell Westbrook, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, DeAndre Jordan and Reggie Jackson have all moved in and out of Denver in recent years with little impact.
It is no surprise, then, that Denver’s bench ranks 28th in scoring and 23rd in net rating. Even if Jokic recaptures his top form, that is a real drag for him to overcome.
Why Denver lacks real options to improve
Denver’s salary cap situation will not ease anytime soon. If Jokic signs an extension next summer, worth up to $360 million over five years, he will join Murray and Gordon on the long-term books. Both are under contract through 2028-29. Braun’s five-year, $125 million extension, which just took effect this season, adds further strain to the Nuggets’ finances.
Denver would struggle to get value in trades involving Gordon and Braun because of their salaries. The Nuggets also cannot afford to part with Murray given his strong play and track record. None of their younger players have played well enough to generate a significant trade return.
More importantly, if Jokic’s impact continues to lag, the Nuggets will need to consider negotiating rather than simply giving him a maximum extension with a record average annual value of $72 million.
Signing a five-year extension next summer would keep Jokic under contract through his age-36 season, and there is no recent precedent for a center playing at an MVP level that late in his career. Tim Duncan led a balanced San Antonio Spurs team to the 2014 championship at age 37, but he earned only $10.4 million on a team-friendly discount that season, a fraction of the maximum salary available to him.
Jokic’s slow start has made clear that Denver lacks a succession plan if its franchise center faces meaningful age-related decline or a significant injury. The Nuggets were built to support Jokic under the assumption that he would keep handling the heavy lifting. No rising superstar is waiting to take the baton, and Denver has already traded its first-round picks in 2027, 2029 and 2032.
Something will have to give. Denver has no plausible path to re-sign Jokic to an enormous extension, improve his supporting cast and avoid the NBA’s second apron penalties all at once. The Milwaukee Bucks faced a similar crossroads with Giannis Antetokounmpo last summer, and they chose to trade him to the Miami Heat and pursue a full rebuild.
For now, Jokic has resisted pressure to overhaul the roster and has given no indication that he wants to leave Denver. Superstars such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Antetokounmpo have changed teams in recent years in pursuit of championships, but Jokic could follow the Dirk Nowitzki model instead. Nowitzki led the Dallas Mavericks to the 2011 title, then spent eight more seasons with the franchise even though he never won another playoff series.
Like Dallas with Nowitzki, Denver has good reasons to reward Jokic’s loyalty as he ages. But this season has offered a glimpse of the organization’s uncertain future. Jokic can only mask the Nuggets’ problems when he is playing at an MVP level. When he is not, Denver’s entire plan starts to fall apart.