Fallback strategy guide: Seven late-round selections who are just one breakthrough away from fantasy relevance

Fantasy managers should look beyond the obvious starters this season, because the players most likely to become breakout fantasy assets often sit unnoticed on thin depth charts until a trade, injury, or promotion opens a role. The clearest example is Jeremy Lin. Midway through the 2011-2012 season, after the New York Knicks lost 11 of 13 games, coach Mike D’Antoni had few backcourt options. Baron Davis was out with a bad back, and Iman Shumpert was sidelined with a knee ailment. D’Antoni turned to Lin, a combo guard averaging 3.6 points in 6.1 minutes, and within days the sports world and fantasy leagues were immersed in Linsanity.

The lesson from Lin’s rise is that fragile rosters and thin depth charts can produce outsized fantasy results. Predicting that Lin would become a star was difficult. Expecting him to step up in a valuable D’Antoni offense was far easier. Lin might never have reached the floor that winter if he had been part of a stable, healthy, and deep backcourt.

Ryan Rollins followed a similar path last season, with far less hype. The Milwaukee Bucks entered the year without reliable scoring or shot creation beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo. Rollins, a player undrafted in most leagues, finished No. 30 overall on the Player Rater. That result was surprising, but the context of Milwaukee’s roster made his leap understandable.

This piece focuses on players around the league whose ceilings may be far higher than the market currently recognizes. Sometimes a player is only a trade, injury, or promotion away from a lasting and rewarding role. A single Shams Charania post can reshape multiple depth charts in an instant. These are players who need some combination of luck, development, timing, and coaching trust to break out. Many are widely available in free agency or in the late rounds of drafts ahead of the 2026-27 season, and each could become the kind of statistical force that Lin, Rollins, and others have been in past seasons.

Ajay Mitchell and Aday Mara, Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have waves of capable backups throughout the roster, which makes it harder to determine who benefits when a star misses time. Mitchell already offers proof of concept. In just over 100 playoff minutes with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander off the court last spring, Mitchell produced 26.5 points and 7.8 assists per 75 possessions. He will likely sustain independent value even with a healthy group of stars, but he is also one injury update away from becoming a true force. If either Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams were sidelined, Mitchell would likely inherit a major role.

Mara, a rookie with impressive preseason production and tape, has enough rim protection and paint scoring potential to matter if either Isaiah Hartenstein or Chet Holmgren misses time. Rim protection is one of the most transferable skills from college to the NBA. I would rather be early than late to a block party.

Ayo Dosunmu, Minnesota Timberwolves

LaMelo Ball has averaged just over 50 regular-season games across his six-year career. He played a career-low 28 minutes per game last season as part of a deliberate maintenance plan.

Dosunmu, meanwhile, made NBA playoff history with a 43-point performance against Denver this past April, the second-highest-scoring game ever by a playoff reserve. He has thrived when given the chance to create in both Chicago and Minnesota. Now he is in a high-stakes situation with a long-term contract, playing behind one of the least durable lead guards in the league. Dosunmu checks many of the Lin-like boxes.

Anthony Black, Orlando Magic

With both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner off the floor last season, Black posted 23 points, five rebounds, four assists, and two steals per 36 minutes for the Magic. Over the last winter and spring, Black developed from a player without a clear identity into an aggressive downhill driver who can finish or find teammates. The open question is whether he can produce at a fantasy-relevant level when Banchero and Wagner are healthy.

Black was the sixth pick in his draft class and is still scratching the surface of his potential. He may need little more than his new coach’s trust to take off. Don’t overlook him when searching for a high-ceiling guard late in your draft.

Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz

Last season’s rookie class was so strong that Bailey’s brilliant spring was largely overshadowed by a lottery-bound effort from Utah. The rangy forward averaged 19.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in 14 games last March, shooting 45.3% from the field and 40.3% from three. That stretch included a 37-point game against a Toronto Raptors team that ranked among the league’s better defensive groups. Bailey should see extended opportunities to score off the bench and could contend for major minutes in smaller closing lineups.

Utah’s star forwards, Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr., have each faced significant durability concerns over the past few seasons. Whether through promotion, injury, or some combination of both, Bailey’s path to scoring stardom is less winding than it might appear.

Collin Sexton, Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers’ roster is top-heavy and leans on Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves as its offensive engines, so it is easy to forget that Sexton, still only 27, has become an efficient, if nearly elite, scoring guard. He has bounced around the league because of his lack of size and defensive utility. Even so, he has produced nearly 24 points and five assists per 36 minutes over the past three seasons on remarkably efficient shooting splits.

Even if the Lakers’ star playmakers stay healthy, Sexton is a viable Sixth Man of the Year candidate as a microwave scorer off the bench for a team that lacks scoring and playmaking depth. If he is handed the keys to the offense in place of one of the team’s star creators, even for a few weeks, he could thrive.

Isaiah Stewart, Memphis Grizzlies

Many fantasy rosters will include Zach Edey, but Stewart offers a different kind of value. The Grizzlies are leaning into a tougher, larger identity, and Stewart embodies that direction. In just under 23 minutes per game for the Detroit Pistons last season, Stewart posted 1.6 blocks per game, good for eighth in the NBA.

Stewart proved he could be fantasy-relevant even as a secondary big behind an All-NBA center in Detroit. Edey, for all his gifts, has yet to show he can endure the NBA grind for more than a few months at a time. Stewart is one injury update away from becoming a double-double force with difference-making defensive numbers.

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